ESPN Bracketology vs Forgotten Forensics, Round 4

As a Hoops Forensic Scientist, I’m afforded incredible liberties that the common man is (with good reason) denied. One such liberty is the exclusive opportunity to manipulate basketball’s brokers of power by gently exercising my sizable influence:

It’s only a matter of time before the Red Wolves make an appearance on The Bubble. Not this week, of course, as Lunardi is both a gentleman and scholar. These maneuvers must be executed with supreme delicacy. I’d explain in greater detail, but there’s math involved.

What is ESPN Bracketology?

The Readers Digest Version: ESPN Bracketology is spearheaded by ESPN “Bracketologist” Joe Lunardi, who attempts to predict the March Madness Field of 64 based off  (we assume) 1) ESPN RPI, 2) ESPN BPI (which is some kind of mysterious power index) and 3) Lunardi’s gut.

For the sake of the Group of Five (or in our parlance, “TheForgotten”), we’ll half-ass analyze Bracketology each week with Forgotten Forensics to hold Lunardi’s gut to the fire.

What is Forgotten5 Forgotten Forensics?

Basically a rip off of the more well-funded Bracketology, but using less ESPN-y metrics, like Sagarin and Kenpom, to makes us look smart. Slightly dumbing down the formula: my gut.

Forgotten Forensics, January 27 Edition

The Group of Five will be lucky to see five teams in the Tourney

If you’re a fan of G5 athletics (and who isn’t?), you’re probably seeing a trend in Bracketology that has you feeling pretty sour. Once again, Lunardi projects every Group of Five conference to be one-bid participants, with the exception of the American, with SMU and Cincinnati secure in their Dancy-ness. But it can’t be that bad, right? Surely there is hope on the horizon?

The Group of Five is Bubble-less

Oh no! According to Lunardi, there’s not one Group of Five team even approaching The Bracket! Houston, with its 50 Kenpom, isn’t getting a sniff. Neither is UT-Arlington (72), San Diego State (73) or Memphis (74). It’s a Power Five world out there, son! We’re just paying rent.

So which Forgotten will be remembered forever this march?

Nevada (68 Kenpom) is a crisp 17-4 and destroying the Mountain West, rated the 10th best conference in the land according to Bracketology has the Wolfpack an unconvincing 12th seed, but that’s a great spot to make noise in the Tournament. The Bearcats of Cincinnati (18-2, 17 Kenpom) are Lunardi’s highest seeded G5, earning a five. Undefeated in conference and with a sweet win over Xavier, the Bearcats might be the G5’s only hope.

Who can crash the Dance?

With SMU and Cincinnati locked in on their own considerable merits, a conference tourney run from Memphis, Houston or even UCF could land three Americans in the NCAA tournament. In the Sun Belt and Mountain West, UT-Arlington and San Diego State are the only two programs remotely able to sneak into the tournament without winning the conference tournament. The MAC looks hopeless, but a conference tournament upset could see some lucky CUSA program joining Middle Tennessee.

So basically, we’re screwed.


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