Takes from last week
Going 2-2 plus hitting on the parlay isn’t bad for week 1 match-ups. I thought too highly of Colorado State and Arizona State couldn’t quite handle that Sun Belt heat.
So far I am 5-2 overall and 1-0-1 for parlays on the season. Remember, picks are listed in order of confidence.
This weeks picks
UAB at Ball State. Saturday Sept. 9th 2:00pm CT. ESPN3
Ball State is 1-9 ATS at home when a favorite over the past 10 games. They are 1-3 ATS vs. CUSA opponents, and each of those 4 games had much tighter lines. I am assuming they are getting some value because of their showing against a B1G team last week and it being a home game.
I have no idea why bettors are not moving this line in UAB’s favor. I’m assuming it is because they have been out of football, but they are a much better team than being a 2 TD dog to a non-glamorous MAC opponent.
NMSU at UNM. Saturday Sept. 9th 7:00pm CT.
NMSU hasn’t been a favorite in this game since 2011, which makes sense seeing they have only won once in that span. NMSU had a great showing at Arizona State last week and they have won this rivalry game ATS the spread the last three years.
UNM had a decent showing against Albilene Christian giving up a staunchy 8 yards on the ground in 21 attempts, but still giving up almost 300 in the air. NMSU was able to put up almost 400yds through the air on offense against a P5 defense, so I believe they will have little trouble picking apart the lobos.
I feel very confident NMSU will cover this spread and might even pull off the victory.
UNLV at Idaho. Saturday Sept. 9th 6:00pm CT. ESPN 3
Idaho is a much better team than their first game suggested. I believe we will see a better passing game the rest of the season. They are 8-1-1 in their last ten games ATS.
UNLV is 4-6 ATS for the past 10 away games and I believe this game could be a blow out if the Idaho offense gets rolling. Against Howard they put in over 300 yards rushing while giving up over 300 yards rushing. If they let Idaho get their running and passing game going it will be a long night for the Rebels in the Kibbie dome.
Recently Idaho has been devalued because of their location and their rough past, but I believe they will carry on with their winning ways ATS this year.
EMU @ Rutgers. Saturday Sept. 9th 2:30pm CT. B1G Network
Rutgers is not that good as a home favorite ATS. Over the past 20 games they boast a 14-6 record at home when favored, but they don’t cover the points in those games going 7-13 ATS.
EMU Had a cake walk against Charlotte, a game that I picked correctly. I like their returning components, Senior RB and QB Tandem that might be the best in the MAC. EMU is 7-3-1 as a road underdog over the past 2 years. They have been undervalued and I believe that is bleeding over into this year.
Fresh Parlay: UAB (+14) and the Over (54)