Takes from last week
I’ve gone 2-1 ATS the last two weeks and am currently 19-6-1 for the year. No Ric Flair .gif because of Air Force’s close loss ATS to UNLV.
South Alabama did not go as predicted with their upset over Troy on Wednesday night, but either way the +17 line was in hand for most of the game. Navy almost pulled off the upset against Memphis. Up by 4 with around a minute left, but a turnover late let Memphis comeback and win the game. Thankfully we had 4 points on Navy and secured the win ATS.
Remember picks are listed by confidence.
This Weeks Hot Picks
GA Southern @ UMASS (-7) Sat. Oct 21th 2:30pm No TV
I love this type of game. Battle of the defeated. Neither of these teams will be bringing a W into this game, yet one will leave with their First! I was correct a few weeks back when Georgia State defeated Charlotte in their Battle of the Bads and enjoyed covering that game as well.
First lets get all the bad out of the way. Georgia Southern is in the bottom of the FBS in 3rd Down offense and defense, Completion percentage, 1st down offense, Red Zone offense, Total Offense, and Total Defense. The Eagles are currently 0-4-1 ATS to date and are 3-6-1 in their last 10 away games.
UMASS is in the bottom of the FBS in Rushing Offense and Defense, Sacks allowed, Turnover Margin, and 3rd Down offense. The Minutemen are currently 2-4 ATS the spread to date and are 3-7 ATS at home for the past 10 games.
I want to pick Georgia Southern, but I can’t see them taking control of this game. The Minutemen’s QB Andrew Ford should have a field day picking apart this Eagles secondary. I think this will be reminiscent of ASU’s dominating performance against GaSo.
Tulsa @ UCONN (+6) Sat. Oct 21th 11:00am ESPNU
This is another game where the teams do not have many wins. Both teams are coming in with 2 wins. Tulsa’s to ULL and Houston, while UConn’s two are against Holy Cross and a surprise victory against Temple last week.
Tulsa is currently 3-4 ATS this year and 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 away games. Tulsa ranks in the top of the FBS in 3rd Down Conversion, Red Zone Offense and Rushing Offense. The Tulsa Defense has had a knack for take-aways and scoring. The Golden Hurricanes have not had a great season when looking at Rushing Defense and Passing offense.
The lack of rushing defense should not hurt Tulsa too bad as UConn has been killing it through the air. Currently the Huskies are at the top of the FBS is Passing yards, Passing Efficiency and to no surprise overall Passing Offense. The area the Huskies should be worried about are Turnovers turnovers turnovers.
I think we have an overvalued UConn against an undervalued Tulsa. We should see a lot of points on both sides, but turnovers could put the Huskies under.
Fresno State @ San Diego State (-7.5) Sat. Oct 21th 9:30am CBSSN
This should be the G5 game of the week. Conference foe’s battling it out in San Diego. Both teams are in the top 25 of the following FBS statistical categories; Total Defense, Turnover Margin, Time of Possession and Passes Had Intercepted (In a good way).
Fresno had two tough losses to Alabama and Washington earlier in the season and since then they have beat three conference opponents by 25 points on average. I like that the Bulldogs are 18th in FBS for fewest penalties and 19th in rushing defense.
San Diego State was stopped in their tracks last week against Boise. Boise was able to stop Penny, which is what I believe Fresno will be able to accomplish as well.
Fresno State (+7.5)
UAB @ Charlotte (+7.5) Sat. Oct 21th 5:30am No TV
I don’t have time to write this last one up because I have two papers to write, a stack of tests to grade and I need to attend to my family duties. Just wanted to state that I believe UAB will cover the 7.5 points and get their first road win of the season at winless Charlotte.