Get’em While They’re Hot: Week 1 Picks

Fresh off going 3-0 ATS last week (4-0 if you count the Mayweather fight) and a push for my parlay I look to tackle the true first week of G5 football.  Let’s get this regular season rolling.  Games are ranked in confidence.

 

Charlotte at Eastern Michigan Friday September 1st 5:30PM

Charlotte has won 2 games ATS in September since joining FBS.  Overall the 49ers are 7-13-3 in those two years.  When the other team is favored by 2 or more touchdowns the 49ers are 1-7-1.  Needless to say I am not high on the 49ers.

Eastern Michigan on the other hand had a surprise season last year, and like most surprise seasons for G5 schools this meant they did well ATS, going 9-3.  I see EMU continuing their success with bringing back a majority of their starters, including a great QB and RB combo.

This has potential to be a Stanford-esque style blow out.

Eastern Michigan (-13.5)

 

Colorado St. at Colorado Friday September 1st 8:00PM

Colorado State is predicted by many to be a sleeper pick in the MWC.  CSU has impressive weapons on the offensive side of the ball and last week showed that it can create turnovers on the defense.

I think bettors are still scared to pull the trigger on a G5 out of conference game.   It makes sense with this series because Colorado has dominated over the past 10+ years, but I do not believe that tradition will continue this Friday in Denver.

Colorado St. (+5.5)

 

New Mexico St. at Arizona State Thursday Aug. 31st 9:30PM

NMSU hasn’t done well ATS in money games where the line is greater than 21.  Only 2 wins ATS in these types of games since 2012, and one of those was Kentucky.   In that stretch, they have lost these types of games on average by 43.

It is hard for me to pick NMSU to stay under a 24 point difference because ASU has done well ATS with games between the 20 to 30 line, winning 6 of the last 7 ATS.   ASU’s offense has potential to be explosive, especially against a traditionally struggling SunBelt team.

Arizona State (-23)

 

South Alabama at Ole Miss Saturday September 2nd 7:30PM

South Alabama has proven they can beat the spread the past 4 years in money games.  USA has only one loss ATS in money games in that stretch, even upsetting Miss. St for a win last year.

That one loss ATS was against Nebraska in 2015, and is the only money game USA has lost by more than 24 points in this stretch against P5 opponents.

Last year Ole Miss struggled to put Wofford away and that was before the debacle of craziness that occurred over the summer.  I believe South Alabama will cover this spread at +24 and I believe we might even see the line lower closer to game time.

South Alabama (+24)

 

Fresh Parlay: Oklahoma State (-18.5) with Over (69)

 

I’m running a free weekly college pick’em league in yahoo for all games with a SunBelt football team. Picks will be against the spread. If you are interested in joining the league Group ID# 2618 Password: jonesboro, It will ask for a Pick Set Name, it is just the nickname you use in the league.  I will be giving away a prize for the overall winner. https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/college

 

 

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