San Diego State Aztecs(10-2)-Army Black Knights(9-3)
Start Time: 3:30 PM EST
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Weather: 49 at kick with a 0% chance of rain
Line: SDSU -6.5
FPI: SDSU 60.5%
San Diego State Overview
Penny, Penny, Penny. Ok, that’s all.
Seriously though, Rashaad Penny is the most slept on running back in the nation. You would think leading the nation in rushing yards would mean you’d be well known, but no, it doesn’t.
Rashaad Penny has run for 2,027 yards this season and has 19 touchdowns, it is quite impressive what he has done this season. Penny has 100+ yards in all but two games(the two they lost but we will get to that later), he also has had over 200 yards in the last four games this season(Hawaii, SJSU, Nevada, New Mexico).
The Aztec offense is very much, Penny or die. In the two games the Aztecs have lost, Penny has a combined 122 yards. The two losses came against defenses who success at stopping the run on standard downs have them ranked 86th and 120th(Boise State, Fresno State). Their rankings for stopping the run on passing downs are 60th and 102nd(Fresno State, Boise State). In those categories, Army ranks 82nd and 39th. When faced with decent run defenses, Perry is “slowed” down(except the Stanford game). I put the slowed down in quotes because you can only slow him down so much.
The SDSU defense has been great at not allowing points(18.4 per game) and okay at limiting teams yardage against them(303.5 per game). The most points they’ve given up this year was 31 in a loss to Boise State. They are a good unit who can present some problems to the Black Knights offense.
Army is coming off one of the biggest wins in recent program history, not only was it back to back wins over Navy, it gave the Black Knights the Commander-in-Chief Trophy for the first time since 1996.
The Black Knights are led by QB Ahmad Bradshaw, he will go down as one of the best, if not the best triple-option QB Army has ever had(Two wins over Navy, a win over Air Force, a CiC, single-season rushing record). This season he has 1,566 rushing yards which is fifth in the nation. Bradshaw is extremely reliable and almost always makes the right reads.
When the triple option is working to maximum efficiency, any of the four fullbacks(Darnell Woolfolk, Andy Davidson, Connor Slomka, Calen Holt) are gaining five-plus yards a play. Then once the defense starts to key in on the fullback, Bradshaw has the option to keep it or pitch it out wide to guys like Kell Walker or Jordan Asberry.
The Black Knight defense is nearly as good as SDSU’s, they give up 20.9 points a game. They are led by Rhyan England and Alex Aukerman. England is like a quarterback, always talking and calling out coverages and plays. Jay Bateman says that he is the best player he’s ever recruited. Aukerman is just a beast, he makes plays when Army needs plays to be made.
The secondary is led by two young studs in Elijah Riley and Jaylon McClinton and veteran in Gibby Gibson. Gibson made one of the best plays of the year, stopping EMU on the goal line on a go-ahead two-point conversion with a 49 seconds left.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 14, 2017
This game is going to be a fun one, I think these two teams will stay close to each other throughout the game.
I think Penny will have around 100 yards but I don’t see him torching the Army defense either.
As for Army, I think they’ll be able to run the option well enough to win the game, they will hold on to the ball and keep the ball out of Penny’s hands.
I think the game will be tied late and SDSU will kick a field goal and Ahmad Bradshaw will lead another magical drive to win the game.
SDSU 24-Army 28